Aluminium isimbi ine simba guru rekushandisa uye high carbon emissions.Pasi pemamiriro ekubvumirana kwepasi rose pamusoro pekuderedzwa kwekabhoni, uye pasi pezvipingamupinyi zve "double carbon" yepamba uye "simba rekushandisa kaviri kutonga" mitemo, iyo electrolytic aluminium indasitiri ichasangana neA shanduko inosvika kure.Ticharamba tichichera zvakadzika muindasitiri yearuminiyamu ye electrolytic, kubva kugwaro kuenda kuindasitiri, kubva kune macro kusvika kudiki, kubva pakugovera kusvika pakuda, kuongorora machinjiro angave aripo mune imwe neimwe link, uye kuongorora maitiro avo anogona kuitika pamitengo yearuminiyamu inotevera.
Kupisa kwakanyanya kunopera, ingave mutengo wealuminium wakatarisana "kuderedza fivha"
Kupisa kwakanyanyisa muna August kwakatsvaira nyika yose, uye nzvimbo dzakawanda dzeEurasia dzakasangana nemamiriro okunze ekupisa kwakanyanya, uye magetsi enzvimbo yacho akanga ari mudzvinyiriro huru.Pakati pavo, mutengo wemagetsi wakakwira munzvimbo dzakawanda dzeEurope, izvo zvakakonzera kumwe kuderedzwa kwekugadzira muindasitiri yemuno electrolytic aluminium.Panguva imwecheteyo, nharaunda yekumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero kwenyika yakakanganiswawo zvakanyanya nekupisa kwakanyanya, uye kuderedzwa kukuru kwekugadzira kwakaitika mudunhu reSichuan.Pasi pekukanganiswa kwedivi rekupa, mutengo wealuminium wakawedzera kubva pa17,000 yuan/ton pakati paChikunguru kusvika pamusoro pe19,000 yuan/ton mukupera kwaNyamavhuvhu.Parizvino, mamiriro okunze anopisa akatanga kuderera uye Fed inotarisirwa kukwidza mhindu zvakanyanya.Mutengo wealuminium wakatarisana ne "fivha"?
Isu tinotenda kuti manzwiro enguva pfupi macro ari bearish, uye kukwira kweiyo US dollar index kwakadzvinyirira zvinhu, izvo zvave kumanikidza mitengo yealuminium.Asi munguva yepakati, dambudziko rekushomeka kwesimba muEurope richavepo kwenguva yakareba, chiyero chekuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu ye electrolytic ichawedzerwa, uye kushandiswa kwayo kwepasi uye kwekupedzisira kuchanyanya kutsamira pane zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika.Nemitengo yakaderera yesimba muChina, kutengesa kunze kwealuminium kune yakaderera-mutengo mukana, izvo zvinoita kuti kunze kwenyika muchikamu chechitatu nechina kotambe kuchengetedza maitiro akanaka.Mumwaka wekunze-wechinyakare chekushandisa kwechinyakare, materminal kushandiswa kunoratidza kusimba kuri pachena, uye kuunganidzwa kwekuchengetedza mukati mepakati uye kuzasi kwenzira kunogumira.Mushure mekunge tembiricha yepamusoro yadzikira, kuvakwa kwakadzika kunotarisirwa kutangazve nekukurumidza, zvichityaira kupera kwezvinhu.Iko kuenderera mberi kwekuvandudzwa kwezvinhu zvakakosha kunoita kuti Shanghai Aluminium iwedzere kusimba.Kana iyo macro manzwiro ikavandudzwa, ichava nesimba rebound simba.Mushure me "Golden Nine Silver Gumi" mwaka wepamusoro wekushandisa, kudzikira kwekudiwa uye kusimba kwekupa kwakakurumbira, mutengo wealuminium uchatarisana zvakare nekumanikidza kukuru kwekugadzirisa.
Mutengo wetsigiro uri pachena, iyo pullback pressure haina simba kupfuura munaJune
Muna Chikumi, iyo Federal Reserve yakazivisa kukwidza mhindu ne75 basis points.Mushure mekuzivisa, misika yakatanga kutengesa tarisiro yekuderera kwehupfumi, zvichikonzera kuderera kukuru kwemitengo yealuminium mukutenderera kunoramba kuripo gore rino.Mutengo wakadonha kubva pa21,000 yuan/ton pakati paChikumi kusvika pa17,000 yuan pakati paChikunguru./t pedyo.Kutya kuderera kwekuda kweramangwana, kwakasanganiswa nekunetsekana pamusoro pekushaya simba kwemba, kwakakonzera kudonha kwekupedzisira.
Mushure mekutaura kwesvondo rapfuura kweHawkish neFederal Reserve Chairman, musika wakatengesa zvakare tarisiro ye75 basis point rate yekukwira, uye mitengo yealuminium yakadonha neinosvika chiuru cheyuan mumazuva matatu, zvakare yakatarisana nekumanikidzwa kukuru kwekugadzirisa.Isu tinotenda kuti kudzvanywa kwekugadzirisa uku kuchave kushoma zvakanyanya kupfuura yaJune: kune rumwe rutivi, purofiti yearuminiyamu indasitiri ye electrolytic muna Chikumi yaive pamusoro pe3,000 yuan / ton, kungave kubva pakuona kwekuvharira kudiwa kwechirimwa chealuminium. pachayo, kana iyo indasitiri yekumusoro mune mamiriro ekuderera kwekuda.Kubva pakuona kwekusagadzikana kwepamusoro purofiti, makambani ealuminium ari kutarisana nenjodzi yekuderera kwepurofiti.Kukwirisa purofiti, kudonha kwakanyanya, uye purofiti yeindasitiri iripo yadzika kusvika ku400 yuan/ton, saka pane nzvimbo shoma yekuenderera mberi kufona.Kune rimwe divi, mutengo wazvino we electrolytic aluminium zviri pachena unotsigirwa.Avhareji yemari ye electrolytic aluminium pakati peChikumi yaive yakapoteredza 18,100 yuan/ton, uye mutengo waive uchiri kutenderera 17,900 yuan/ton pakupera kwaNyamavhuvhu, paine shanduko diki.Uye nekufamba kwenguva, pane nzvimbo shoma yealuminium, pre-baked anodes uye mari yemagetsi inodonha, izvo zvinoita kuti mutengo wekugadzira electrolytic aruminiyamu urambe uri panzvimbo yakakwirira kwenguva yakareba, kugadzira tsigiro yemutengo wazvino wealuminium. .
Mitengo yemagetsi yekumhiri kwemakungwa yakakwira, uye kuderedzwa kwekugadzira kuchawedzera
Mhirizhonga yemagetsi ekunze inoramba ichikwira, uye kuderedzwa kwekugadzira kucharamba kuchiwedzera.Kuburikidza nekuongororwa kwechimiro chesimba muEurope neUnited States, zvinogona kuoneka kuti simba rinogonekazve, gasi rechisikigo, marasha, simba renyukireya uye mamwe masimba emagetsi anoita chikamu chikuru.Kusiyana neUnited States, Europe inovimba zvakanyanya nekutenga kunze kwenyika kune ayo echisikigo gasi uye marasha.Muna 2021, kushandiswa kwegasi rechisikigo kuEurope kunenge kuri mabhiriyoni 480 cubic metres, uye inoda kusvika 40% yekushandiswa kwegasi rechisikigo inotengeswa kubva kuRussia.Muna 2022, kukakavara pakati peRussia neUkraine kwakakonzera kukanganiswa kwegasi rechisikigo muRussia, izvo zvakakonzera kuenderera mberi kwemitengo yegasi muEurope, uye Europe yaifanira kutsvaga dzimwe nzira dzesimba reRussia pasirese, iro rakasundidzira zvisina kunanga. kukwira mitengo yepasi rose gasi.Zvichikanganiswa nemitengo yemagetsi yakakwira, zvidyarwa zviviri zvearuminiyamu zvekuNorth America zvakaderedza kugadzirwa, nechiyero che304,000 matani ekuderedzwa kwekugadzira.Iko kugona kwekuwedzera kuderedzwa kwekugadzira hakuzorambidzwe kunze mune inotevera nhanho.
Pamusoro pezvo, tembiricha yepamusoro yegore rino nekusanaya kwemvura zvakakonzerawo kukanganisa kukuru kusimba reEurope.Huwandu hwemvura hwenzizi zhinji dzemuEurope hwadzikira zvakanyanya, izvo zvakakanganisa zvakanyanya kushanda kwekugadzira magetsi emvura.Pamusoro pezvo, kushaikwa kwemvura kunokanganisawo kutonhora kwezvidyarwa zvemagetsi enyukireya, uye mhepo inodziya inoderedzawo kugadzirwa kwemagetsi emhepo, zvichiita kuti zviome kuti zvidyarwa zvemagetsi enyukireya uye maturbine emhepo ashande.Izvi zvakawedzera kuwedzera gaka rekupa magetsi muEurope, izvo zvakakonzera kuvharika kwemaindasitiri mazhinji anoshandisa simba.Tichifunga nezvekusasimba kweiyo yazvino simba reEuropean chimiro, isu tinotenda kuti chiyero cheEuropean electrolytic aluminium kuderedzwa kwekugadzira kuchawedzerwa gore rino.
Tichitarisa kumashure kwekuchinja kwehuwandu hwekugadzira muEurope, kubva padambudziko remari muna 2008, kuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa kwekuwedzera muEurope kusasanganisa Russia kwapfuura matani miriyoni 1.5 (tisingasanganisi kudzikiswa kwekugadzira mudambudziko resimba ra2021).Pane zvakawanda zvinokonzeresa kuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa, asi mukuongorora kwekupedzisira inyaya yemutengo: semuenzaniso, mushure mekuputika kwedambudziko rezvemari muna 2008, mutengo we electrolytic aluminium muEurope wakawira pasi pemutengo wemutengo, izvo zvakakonzera a. kuderedzwa kukuru kwekugadzira muEuropean electrolytic aluminium zvidyarwa;Mutengo wemagetsi anti-subsidy kuferefeta kwakaitika kuUnited Kingdom nedzimwe nzvimbo, izvo zvakaita kuti mitengo yemagetsi iwedzere uye kuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa kwezvirimwa zvearuminiyamu.Hurumende yeUK inorongawo kutanga muna 2013, ichida kuti majenareta emagetsi abhadhare yakawedzera kuburitsa kabhoni.Matanho aya akawedzera mutengo wekushandiswa kwemagetsi muEurope, zvichikonzera kuwanda kweiyo electrolyticaluminium profile suppliers izvo zvakamisa kugadzirwa kwekutanga uye hazvina kuzombotangazve kugadzira.
Sezvo dambudziko remagetsi rakatanga muEurope gore rakapera, mari yemagetsi emunharaunda yakaramba yakakwirira.Pasi pesimba reUkraine-Russia kukakavara uye yakanyanyisa mamiriro ekunze, mutengo wegasi chaiwo uye magetsi muEurope wasvika kurekodha.Kana mutengo weavhareji wemagetsi emunharaunda uchiverengerwa pa650 euros paMWh, imwe neimwe kilowati-awa yemagetsi yakaenzana neRMB 4.5/kW·h.Kushandiswa kwesimba patani imwe yekugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu ye electrolytic muEurope kunosvika 15,500 kWh.Zvinoenderana nekuverenga uku, mutengo wekugadzira patani yealuminium iri pedyo ne70,000 yuan patani.Zvidyarwa zveAluminium zvisina mitengo yemagetsi enguva refu hazvigone kuzvitenga zvachose, uye kutyisidzira kwekuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa kwealuminum kwe electrolytic kuri kuramba kuchiwedzera.Kubva 2021, iyo electrolytic aruminiyamu yekugadzira huwandu muEurope yakaderedzwa ne1.326 miriyoni matani.Isu tinofungidzira kuti mushure mekupinda mumatsutso, dambudziko rekushaikwa kwesimba muEurope harigone kugadziriswa zvinobudirira, uye kune njodzi yekuwedzera kudzikiswa kwekugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu ye electrolytic.matani kana zvakadaro.Tichifunga nezve hurombo hwakanyanya elasticity yekugovera muEurope, zvichave zvakaoma kupora kwenguva yakareba mushure mekucheka kwekugadzira.
Hunhu hwesimba hwakatanhamara, uye kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kune zvakanakira mutengo
Musika unowanzo tenda kuti simbi dzisina-ferrous dzine hunhu hwakasimba hwemari mukuwedzera kune hunhu hwezvinhu.Isu tinotenda kuti aluminium yakasiyana nedzimwe simbi uye ine simba rakasimba zvinhu, izvo zvinowanzoregeredzwa nemusika.Zvinotora 13,500 kW h kugadzira tani imwe yearuminiyamu ye electrolytic, iyo inoshandisa magetsi epamusoro patani pakati pesimbi dzese dzisina ferrous.Mukuwedzera, magetsi ayo anokwana anenge 34% -40% yemutengo wose, saka inonziwo "solid-state magetsi".1 kWh yemagetsi inoda kushandisa magiramu mazana mana emarasha akajairwa paavhareji, uye kugadzira 1 toni yearuminiyamu ye electrolytic inoda kushandisa avhareji ye5-5.5 matani emarasha anopisa.Mutengo wemarasha mumagetsi epamba mutengo unosvika 70-75% yemutengo wekugadzira magetsi.Mitengo isati yadzorwa, mitengo yemarasha emangwana uye mitengo yealuminium yeShanghai yakaratidza kuwirirana kwakanyanya.
Parizvino, nekuda kwekugadzikana kwekupa uye mutemo wemitemo, mutengo wemarasha emumba une musiyano wakakura wemutengo nemutengo wenzvimbo dzemhiri kwemakungwa dzinoshandiswa zvakanyanya.Mutengo weFOB we6,000 kcal NAR marasha ekudziya muNewcastle, Australia iUS$438.4/tani, mutengo weFOB wemarasha anopisa muPuerto Bolivar, Colombia iUS$360/tani, uye mutengo wemarasha anopisa paQinhuangdao port iUS$190.54/ton. , mutengo weFOB wemarasha anopisa muchiteshi cheRussia cheBaltic (Baltic) i110 US madhora / tani, uye mutengo weFOB we6000 kcal NAR marasha ekudziya kuFar East (Vostochny) i158.5 US madhora / tani.Nzvimbo dzinodhura dziri kunze kwedunhu dzakakwira zvakanyanya pane dzemumba.Mitengo yegasi yemusikirwo muEurope neUnited States yakakwirira kudarika mitengo yemarasha.Naizvozvo, mudzimba electrolytic aluminiyamu ine simba rakasimba mutengo mukana, iyo icharamba ichive yakatanhamara mumamiriro ezvinhu emitengo yazvino yesimba repasi rose.
Nekuda kwemusiyano wakakura mumitengo yekunze kune akasiyana zvigadzirwa zvealuminium muChina, mutengo wekushandisa wealuminium ingots hausi pachena mukuburitsa kunze, asi unoratidzwa mune inotevera maitiro ealuminium.Maererano nedheta chaiyo, China yakatumira kunze 652,100 matani ealuminium asina kugadzirwa uye zvigadzirwa zvealuminium muna July 2022, gore negore kuwedzera kwe39.1%;iyo yakawedzera kunze kwenyika kubva muna Ndira kusvika Chikunguru yaive 4.1606 miriyoni matani, gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwe34.9%.Mukushaikwa kweshanduko dzakakura mukudiwa kwemhiri kwemakungwa, iyo boom yekunze inotarisirwa kuramba yakakwira.
Kushandiswa kunogadzikana zvishoma, goridhe, pfumbamwe sirivheri uye gumi zvinogona kutarisirwa
Kubva munaChikunguru kusvika Nyamavhuvhu gore rino, iyo yechinyakare yekushandisa off-mwaka yakasangana nemamiriro ekunze akanyanya.Sichuan, Chongqing, Anhui, Jiangsu uye mamwe matunhu akawana simba uye zvirambidzo zvekugadzira, zvichikonzera kuvharika kwemafekitori munzvimbo dzakawanda, asi kushandiswa hakuna kunyanya kushata kubva kune data.Chokutanga pane zvose, maererano nehuwandu hwekushanda kwemabhizimusi ekugadzirisa pasi, yaiva 66.5% pakutanga kwaJuly uye 65.4% pakupera kwaAugust, kuderera kwe1.1 muzana.Mwero wekushanda wakadonha ne3.6 muzana mapoinzi panguva imwecheteyo gore rapfuura.Kubva pakuona kwemazinga ezvinyorwa, matani e4,000 chete ealuminium ingots akachengetwa muna August yose, uye 52,000 matani akanga achiri kunze kwekuchengetwa muna July-August.Muna Nyamavhuvhu, kuchengetwa kwearuminiyamu tsvimbo kwaiva 2,600 matani, uye kubva munaJuly kusvika munaAugust, iyo yakaunganidzwa yekuchengetedza matanda ealuminium yaiva 11,300 tani.Nokudaro, kubva munaJuly kusvika munaAugust, mamiriro ekugadzirisa akachengetwa zvachose, uye matani 6,600 chete akaunganidzwa muna August, izvo zvinoratidza kuti kushandiswa kwemazuva ano kuchine simba rakasimba.Kubva panzvimbo yekupedzisira yekuona, kubudirira kwemotokari itsva dzemagetsi uye mhepo uye kugadzirwa kwesimba rezuva kunochengetwa, uye kudhonza pakushandiswa kwealuminium kuchava gore rose.Iyo yose yakaderera maitiro ezvivakwa haina kuchinja.Kuderera kwemamiriro ekunze ekunze kwekushisa kuchabatsira nzvimbo yekuvaka kuti itangezve basa, uye kutangwa kwehomwe yenyika inokwana mabhiriyoni 200 ye“chivako chakavimbiswa” kuchabatsirawo kuvandudza chinongedzo chokupedzisa.Naizvozvo, isu tinotenda kuti "Golden Nine Silver Gumi" peak mwaka wepamusoro unogona kutarisirwa.
Nguva yekutumira: Sep-09-2022