Munguva pfupi yapfuura, iyo US dollar index yakaramba ichikwira, asi iyo isiri-ferrous misika haina kudonha zvakanyanya, uye maitiro ekusiyanisa akasiyana ari pachena.Kubva pakupera kwekutengesa masikati eNyamavhuvhu 24, maitiro eShanghai Aluminium neShanghai Nickel muchikamu chisina ferrous aive akasiyana.Pakati pavo, Shanghai aluminium ramangwana yakaramba ichikwira, ichivhara 2.66%, ichiisa mwedzi nehafu yakakwirira;Shanghai nickel ramangwana rakapera simba munzira yese, kuvhara pasi 2.03% pazuva.
Izvo zvakakosha kucherechedza kuti ichangoburwa macro kutungamira kune asiri-ferrous simbi ishoma.Kunyangwe vakuru veFed vachangoburwa vaine maitiro ehawkish uye index yemadhora ekuAmerica yakaramba ichisimba, haina kudonhedza zvakanyanya maitiro emasimbi asina-ferrous, uye maitiro emhando dzine hukama akadzokera kune zvakakosha.Wu Haode, mukuru weChangjiang Futures Guangzhou Branch, anotenda kuti pane zvikonzero zvikuru zviviri:
Chekutanga, denderedzwa rapfuura rekuderera kwakanyanya mumitengo yesimbi isiri-ferrous yakazadzisa tarisiro yekuderera kwehupfumi hwenyika pasi peFed rate hike cycle.Kubva muna Chikunguru, Fed's hawkish mubereko wekuwedzera mubereko wakadzikira, uye inflation yeUS yachinja zvishoma, uye zvinotarisirwa nemusika zvekumanikidzwa kukwira mubereko zvave zvine mwero.Kunyange hazvo dhora rekuAmerica richiri rakasimba, tarisiro yekukwira kwemari yemumba iyi inogona kusaita kuti dhora rekuAmerica rirambe richikwira zvakanyanya.Naizvozvo, kusimba kwekusimba kwenguva pfupi kwedhora rekuAmerica pasimbi dzisina ferrous kunoderera zvishoma, kureva kuti, simbi dzisina ferrous dziri "deensitized" kudhora rekuAmerica mumatanho.
Chechipiri, kuwedzera kwekufambisa kwemusika wesimbi isina-ferrous kubva muna Nyamavhuvhu kwakanyanya kubva kumusika wepamba.Kune rumwe rutivi, nerutsigiro rwemitemo yepamba, zvinotarisirwa pamusika zvakavandudzwa;nerumwe rutivi, tembiricha yakakwira munzvimbo zhinji inoramba ichikonzera kushomeka kwemagetsi, zvichikonzera kudzikiswa kwekugadzira pakupera kwekunyunguduka, uye kusunda mitengo yesimbi kuti idzoke.Nokudaro, zvinogona kuonekwa kuti dhisiki yemukati yakasimba kudarika dhisiki yekunze, uye kusiyana pakati pesimba remukati nekunze kwemitengo yealuminium inonyanya kuoneka.
Sekureva kwaHou Yahui, muongorori mukuru weShenyin Wanguo Futures Nonferrous Metals, Nyamavhuvhu ichiri mukati menguva yeFed's macro macro rate hike cycle, uye kukonzeresa kwezvinhu zvakanyanya kushomeka.Mitengo yesimbi yemazuva ano isiri-ferrous inonyanya kuratidza zvakakosha zvemhando pachavo.Semuyenzaniso, mhangura uye zingi zvine masisitimu akasimba ari mukuenderera mberi rebound maitiro.Sezvo rutivi rwekugovera rwunokurudzirwa nenhau dzekuchekwa kwekugadzira panguva imwe chete kumba nekune dzimwe nyika, aluminium ichangobva kuputsika zvakare.Kune mhando dzine husina kusimba hwakasimba, senge nickel, mushure mekudzoka muchikamu chakapfuura, kudzvanywa kuri pamusoro kuchave kuri pachena.
Parizvino, misika yesimbi isina-ferrous yakapinda munguva yekubatanidza, uye pesvedzero yezvakakosha zvemhando dzakasiyana-siyana yakawedzera.Semuenzaniso, zinc uye aluminium profiles vagadziri muChina vakakanganiswa nematambudziko emagetsi muEurope, uye njodzi yekudzikisa kugadzirwa yakawedzera, nepo kugadzirwa kwealuminium mudzimba kwakakanganiswawo nekudzikiswa kwemagetsi emuno.Ngozi yekucheka kwekugadzira yakawedzera.Uyezve, simbi dzisiri-ferrous dzinoramba dzichikanganiswa neakaderera inventory uye kuderera kwekupa elasticity.Kana mari yepasi rose ichiri kuwanda, kuvhiringika kweparutivi kuri nyore kukwezva kutarisa kwemusika. "Muvambi wepakati-temu remangwana muongorori Yang Lina akadaro.
Nekudaro, Yang Lina akayeuchidza kuti musika unofanirwa kutarisisa kuti musangano wepagore wemabhanga makuru epasi rose muJackson Hole, anozivikanwa se "barometer" yekuchinja kwemitemo, uchaitwa kubva Nyamavhuvhu 25 kusvika 27, uye Fed Sachigaro Powell achaitwa. yakaitwa neChishanu 22 Beijing nguva.kunongedza kutaura pamusoro pemaonero ehupfumi.Panguva iyoyo, Powell achatsanangura nezve inflation performance uye matanho emari.Zvinotarisirwa kusimbisa kuti hupfumi hweUnited States nemusika wevashandi zvichiri kusimba, uye inflation yakakwira zvisingagamuchirwi, uye mutemo wezvemari uchiri kufanira kusimbiswa kuti upindure, uye kukurumidza kwekukwira kwemari kucharamba kuchienderera mberi.Yakagadziridzwa data yehupfumi.Mashoko akaziviswa pamusangano acharamba ane simba guru pamusika.Akataura kuti yazvino musika wekutengesa rhythm inochinjana pakati pekusimbisa liquidity, stagflation, uye kuderera zvinotarisirwa.Tichitarisa kumashure, zvinogona kuwanikwa kuti kushanda kwemusika wesimbi isina-ferrous kuchiri nani zvishoma pane zvimwe zvinhu munzvimbo yakafanana.
Tichitarisa kune aluminium profile suppliers, vanoongorora vanotenda kuti kuwedzera kwechangobva kuitika kwemukati nekune dzimwe nyika kukanganiswa kwekupa-divi kwakaunza pachena rutsigiro rwenguva pfupi.Yang Lina akataura kuti pari zvino, iyo yekumba yealuminium yekugovera divi iri kukanganiswa nekudzikira kwemagetsi emagetsi, uye huwandu hwekugadzira huri kuramba huchidzikira.MuEurope, kugadzirwa kwealuminium kwakatemwa zvakare nekuda kwematambudziko emagetsi.Padivi rekuda, makambani ekugadzirisa ari kukanganiswawo nekudzikiswa kwemagetsi uye huwandu hwekushanda hwadzikira.Nekuenderera mberi kwe-off-season yekushandiswa uye kuderera kwemamiriro ekunze, mamiriro ekurongeka kweindasitiri yekugadzira haana kusimba, uye kudzoreredza kwekushandisa kwekupedzisira kunotora nguva uye mamwe matanho ekusimudzira.Panyaya yezvinyorwa, zvinyorwa zvemagariro zvakaunganidza zvishoma zvemitengo yakaipa yealuminium.
Kunyanya, Hou Yahui akaudza vatori venhau kuti kunze kwekuderedza kugadzirwa kunokonzerwa nezvinetso zvesimba, vashandi veHydro's Sunndal aluminium plant muNorway vachangobva kutanga chiramwa, uye aluminium plant ichamisa kugadzirwa ne20% mumavhiki mana ekutanga.Parizvino, huwandu hwese hwekugadzira hweSunndal Aluminium Plant i390,000 matani / gore, uye kuramwa kunosanganisira 80,000 matani / gore.
Mudzimba, musi waNyamavhuvhu 22, simba rekudzimisa zvinodiwa muSichuan Province rakakwidziridzwa zvakare, uye ese emagetsi ealuminium mabhizinesi mupurovhinzi akamisa kugadzirwa.Maererano nenhamba, kune matani anosvika miriyoni imwe ye electrolytic aluminium yekushandisa simba muSichuan Province, uye mamwe mabhizinesi akatanga kudzikisa mutoro uye kurega magetsi kuvanhu kubva pakati paChikunguru.Mushure meNyamavhuvhu, mamiriro ekupa magetsi akanyanya kuoma, uye ese electrolytic aruminiyamu yekugadzira dhizaini mudunhu yakavharwa.Chongqing, iri zvakare kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero, iri zvakare mumamiriro ezvinhu akaoma mumagetsi nekuda kwekushisa kwakanyanya.Zvinonzwisiswa kuti zvidyarwa zviviri zvearuminiyamu zve electrolytic zvakakanganiswa, zvinosanganisira huwandu hwekugadzira hunosvika 30,000 matani.Akataura kuti nekuda kwezvinhu zvataurwa pamusoro apa, pakave nekumwe shanduko mune yakasununguka patani yealuminum basics.Muna Nyamavhuvhu, kudzvanywa kwakawandisa padivi rekupa ye electrolytic aruminiyamu kwakamiswa kwenguva pfupi, izvo zvakagadzira kumwe kutsigirwa kwemitengo munguva pfupi.
"Kusvika riini kushanda kwakasimba kwemitengo yealuminium kunogona kugara zvakanyanya zvinoenderana nenguva yekuramwa kwezvirimwa zvearuminiyamu mhiri kwemakungwa uye kana chiyero chekudzikiswa kwekugadzirwa nekuda kwematambudziko emagetsi chichawedzerwa."Yang Lina akataura kuti iyo nguva yakareba iyo yekupihwa inoenderana nezvinodiwa ichiramba yakasimba, kukanganisa kwemitengo yealuminium kuchave.Iyo yakakura kukanganisa pachiyero chekugovera uye kudiwa.
Hou Yahui akati nekupera kwezororo rezhizha, kuenderera kwekushisa kwakanyanya munzvimbo yekumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero kunotarisirwa kupera zvishoma nezvishoma, asi zvichatora nguva kuti dambudziko remagetsi rideredzwe, uye kugadzirwa kwe electrolytic. aluminium inosarudza kuti kutangazve kwesero re electrolytic kunotorawo nguva.Anofanotaura kuti mushure mekupa kwemagetsi emabhizimusi earuminiyamu e-electrolytic muSichuan Province avimbiswa, zvinotarisirwa kuti huwandu hwese hwekugadzira huchatangwazve ingangoita mwedzi.
Wu Haode anotenda kuti misika yealuminium inoda kutarisisa kune zvinotevera zvinhu: Panyaya yekugovera uye kudiwa, kuchekwa kwemagetsi muSichuan kunotungamira zvakananga mukudzikiswa kwemamiriyoni e1 matani ekugadzira uye kunonoka kwe70,000 matani ehunyanzvi hwekugadzira. .Kana kukanganisa kwekuvhara kunotora mwedzi mumwe chete, kubuda kwealuminium kunogona kunge kwakakwirira se7.5%.matani.Kudivi rekuda, pasi pemitemo yakanaka yemumba, tsigiro yechikwereti uye zvimwe zvinhu, pane kuvandudzwa kwemashandisirwo anotarisirwa, uye nekuuya kwemwaka wepamusoro we "Golden Nine Silver Ten", kuchave nekumwe kuwedzera kwekuda. .Pakazere, izvo zvakakosha zvekupihwa kwealuminium uye kudiwa zvinogona kupfupikiswa se: muganho wekupa unodzikira, iyo yekuda margin inowedzera, uye chiyero chekupa uye kudiwa gore rese chinovandudza.
Panyaya yekuverenga, ikozvino LME aruminiyamu inventory iri pasi pe300,000 matani, yapfuura aruminiyamu inventory iri pasi pe200,000 matani, risiti yekuchengetera zvinhu isingasviki 100,000 matani, uye yepamba electrolytic aluminium social inventory iri pasi pe700,000 tons."Musika wagara uchitaura kuti 2022 ndiro gore rinoiswa electrolytic aluminium mukugadzirwa, uye ndizvo zvazviri.Zvisinei, kana tikatarisa kuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa kwealuminium gore rinouya uye mune ramangwana, simba rekushanda re electrolytic aluminium rinogara richisvika pa'ceiling', uye kudiwa kunoramba kwakagadzikana.Panyaya yekukura, kungave kune dambudziko rekugadzira mualuminium, kana kuti musika ungave watanga kutengeserana, izvi zvinoda kutarisirwa. "Akati.
Kazhinji, Wu Haode anotenda kuti mutengo wealuminium uchange uine tariro mu "goridhe mapfumbamwe esirivha gumi", uye yakakwirira inoona 19,500-20,000 yuan / ton.Nezve kuti mutengo wealuminium uchadzokororwa zvakasimba here kana kuti idling mune ramangwana, isu tinofanirwa kutarisisa kune yakakura kunatsiridzwa kwekushandisa uye imba yekuvhiringidza kwekupa.
Nguva yekutumira: Sep-02-2022